Continued coverage in the media of the links between blood clots and the COVID-19 vaccine causes a cognitive bias and increases our perception that the risks associated with having the vaccine are greater than they really are. Let’s put the risk into perspective:
Risk of developing a blood clot
First dose of AZ: the risk of a blood clot is classified as ‘very rare’ (Department of Health, 2021):
- 1.9 per 100,000 for people aged 18-29
- 1.6 per 100,000 for people aged 30-39
Second dose of AZ: the risk of a blood clot is significantly reduced; in fact, it’s not significantly different to the risk in unvaccinated people (Bhuyan, 2021):
The risk of a blood clot from AZ is 8-10 times lower than the risk of a blood clot during a COVID-19 infection (Taquet, 2021)
Risk of a blood clot compared with other activities
The risk of developing a blood clot from AZ vaccine is far lower than many other medicines and activities for example:
- Taking the combined contraceptive pill 1:5,000 (Therapeutic Goods Administration, 2016)
- Taking a long-haul flight 1:60,000 (Zarocostas, 2007)
Risk of dying from a blood clot
With improved management and probably earlier detection of severe blood clots the risk of dying from a blood clot associated with the AZ vaccine in Australia is low at around 5-7%. The overall risk of dying from a severe blood clot is extremely low.
- Risk of death from a blood clot following an AZ vaccine: 1:2,000,000
- Risk of death by other causes
- Struck by lightning: 1:500,000
- Shark attack while scuba diving: 1:10,000
- Killed by a cow: 1:1,000,000
- Bee sting (Remember the bees on campus!): 1:59,507
- Champagne cork accident: 24 deaths per year globally
- To end the comparisons on a happier note (or not!) compared with a blood clot from AZ you have a better chance of:
- Winning gold at the Olympics: 1:662,000
- Writing a New York Times best seller: 1:220